从估值方面来看，当前农牧渔板块估值水平仍处相对低位，当前或为板块较好配置时机。数据显示，截至昨日（3月3日）收盘，全市场唯一农牧渔ETF（159275）标的指数中证全指农牧渔指数市净率为2.55倍，位于近5年来31.96%分位点的低位，中长期配置性价比凸显。
However, if the war and the effective closure of the Strait stretch beyond the market’s four-week expectation, the economic consequences could become dire. If regional storage facilities run out of space and production is forced to shut down, the market will only be able to rebalance through forced “demand destruction”. “To generate substantial demand destruction, prices may have to rise into triple digit territory,” Struyven warned, adding that the length of the disruption is the single most important variable in the market right now. Every sustained 10% increase in crude oil prices raises headline inflation by about 0.3% and reduces disposable income by the same margin.
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